NBA: Defying the odds - 2025 Indiana Pacers
Indiana - often referred to as the "home of basketball" - had the basketball Gods on their side in Madison Square Garden last night.
The Knicks fouled up by 3 in regulation and lost. The Pacers didn't foul up by 3 in overtime and won. That Haliburton prayer looked like it bounced 25 feet in the air after hitting the rim, and a touch from Jim Irsay up above seemingly willed it in.
From player execution to coaching to the front office above, all is culminating together for the Indiana Pacers, a franchise that is still seeking their first NBA title. And Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is the only remaining head coach who's won a championship before (2011 Dallas Mavericks) out of the four conference finalists.
Back in late February, I was at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, formerly called Bankers Life Fieldhouse before Gainbridge became the naming rights sponsor in 2021. On a Sunday evening, the Indiana Pacers were playing host to the Los Angeles Clippers. At the time, I didn't think much of either team being a real contender in their respective conferences. Little did I know that this experience was a sign of something to come.
The Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell as Indiana cruised to a 129-111 victory. James Harden had 22 points on 6-of-11 shooting and was 4-of-7 from three at halftime. Indiana made the necessary adjustments to hold the superstar left-hander in check following the break.
Now, fast forward to last night's game and the past month of playoff basketball Indiana has played. They've been defying the reality of how basketball games are supposed to end. Last night, they won Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals despite trailing 102-116 with 3:44 remaining in regulation.
Since 1997 during the play-by-play era, no team ever overcame a 14-point deficit in the final 2:45 of the 4th quarter until last night, according to Josh Dubow of the AP. Teams were 0-994.
They pulled off the fourth most improbable playoff comeback in the play-by-play era, according to Mike Beuoy of inpredictable.com.
What was most remarkable about Indiana's comeback was that it was driven entirely by perfect shotmaking. Aaron Nesmith single-handedly gave them a chance late by going 6-for-6 from three in the final five minutes of regulation. No player in NBA history has ever done that before. This also marked one of the most efficient high-volume shooting performances in playoff history, as Nesmith shot 88.9 percent on 8-for-9 from three.
In 2011, Jason Terry shot 90 percent (9-for-10) from three in a conference semifinal matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers.
As a team, Indiana is shooting 40.6 percent from beyond the arc in the playoffs. This ranks among the all-time best three-point shooting performances by a playoff team. The only conference winners above them include the 2012 and 2014 San Antonio Spurs and the 2017 Cleveland Cavaliers.
Tyrese Haliburton is running back behind the three-point line throwing up prayers that are being answered at the buzzer. According to Tom Haberstroh, Haliburton is now 12 of 14 on shots to tie or go ahead in the final 2:00 this season, with a bunch of 3s in there.
Somehow 11 players were selected before Sacramento drafted Haliburton with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. Ironically, Nesmith was selected by Boston two picks after Haliburton went. Let's not forget the New York Knicks drafted Obi Toppin in 2020, as well. He was selected No. 8 overall before Haliburton and Nesmith. Tobbin propelled Indiana in overtime with a putback and cutting dunk in the final minute. There's an extra source of motivation coming off the bench.
Three former lottery pick contributors, none of which were actually drafted by Indiana, are now making their presence felt on the game’s biggest stage. Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan deserves a whirl of credit for assembling these moving pieces by virtue of trades. It's one of the league's deepest rosters that features a star they shipped Domantas Sabonis for.
Since 1997, teams that have trailed by 7+ points in the final 50 seconds of the 4th quarter or OT in the playoffs are 4-1,702. Per the Indiana Pacers, they have 3 of those wins.
Talk about defying the odds. It's awesome to see Jenny Boucek, a 51-year-old female assistant coach take charge in their team huddle. She's been around the game for 25 years, whether at the WNBA or NBA level. Boucek worked alongside Carlisle since his days in Dallas.
The resiliency late in games has been a theme all season, too.
14 games they've won this season after trailing by double digits with less than five minutes remaining.
Double-digit comebacks have been a common theme throughout each round of this year's postseason. It's how the Knicks went up 2-0 on Boston to advance to where they're at now. Denver was the last team to accomplish what Indiana pulled off. In Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, they trailed 102-113 with 4:30 left and won on an Aaron Gordon three-pointer in regulation.
It's worth pointing out Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault intentionally fouled up by three points twice with under 12 seconds remaining. That was also Tom Thibodeau’s strategy last night to foul Nesmith up by three with 12 seconds left.
Chet Holmgren missed two free throws, and OG Anunoby left the door open on a front-end miss, which defeats the entire purpose of fouling.
Some will call it luck and say the Pacers will regress towards the mean. But I think they've already defied such mean with improbable winning results.
Rest in Peace, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay (June 13, 1959 — May 21, 2025).
@JimIrsay on X: Go PACERS. Good luck to Herb, the entire @Pacers organization, and our city!
AJR writing tunes provided by Future - Codeine Crazy
Diamonds colder than a glacier
Ballin' harder than the Pacers